Le formule le trovi nel mio articolo:

http://nuke.mccoy.it/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=naF7bLz7WAY%3d&tabid=64&mid=428


"Data speak for themselves" -Reverend Thomas Bayes 1702-1761
P(Ai|E)=(P(E|Ai)P(Ai))/P(E)